How do return sequences change withdrawals?

What this model assumes

Returns are independent and identically distributed across years; inflation is fixed. You supply the three outcomes and relative weights. Draws are not calibrated to historical data and do not model market regimes or inflation/return dependence.

At a shortfall the available amount is withdrawn, the unpaid expense is recorded, and capital remains zero in later years. The initial partial withdrawal and later unpaid expenses remain visible. This differs from the constant withdrawal model, which pays nothing and stops at its first shortfall.

Frequencies and quantiles describe this finite sample under the supplied assumptions only. They are not market forecasts, a safe withdrawal rate, a guarantee or investment advice. Taxes, fees, longevity, income and strategy changes are excluded.